The Future Of Grocery Shopping

August 19, 2010

by Al Doyle

Science fiction novelists and futurists (especially beginning with the 1939 New York World’s Fair) have spent much time and mental energy trying to figure out what life will be like in coming decades.

Since this is an inexact science at best, more than a few predictions have proved to be off base. In the 1950s, many in the field declared that the constant growth of new gadgets and machines would leave 21st century Americans with 20-hour workweeks and boredom from too much leisure time.

On the plus side, these creative minds have sometimes identified technological advances, trends, and movements that others never considered. George Orwell’s 1984 is the most chilling example of such accuracy.

It’s one thing to dream about commuters in Jetson-style flying cars zipping through the air, but how about applying the predictions game to something much more basic and foundational? What does the future hold for food production, grocery shopping and the supply chain?

The major factor here is income, and it’s obvious that wages are on a steady downward spiral in America. That means less demand for expensive deli dishes and other luxuries with high profit margins. In some ways, that trend has already resulted in significant changes at supermarkets.

Shelves and displays typically have less stock on hand and a narrower selection than what was common a few years ago. This isn’t all negative, as there never was a genuine need for 97 different kinds of breakfast cereal or 23 different boxes of hot chocolate mix, but it also points to a major weakness in the system.

When you go to the grocery, what you see is what you get. There is no stock room or reserves. It’s based on just-in-time (JIT) shipping, which means shelves are restocked shortly before inventories are depleted. This works well enough under normal conditions, but JIT falls apart when any disruptions or adverse events take place – and we’re headed into times where the abnormal is going to become normal.

Since grocers are carrying fewer items, they will also need less space, which will also reduce overhead. Instead of trying to be all things to all customers, stores will focus on target markets. This trend has been expanding for some time, with chains such as Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods competing for the organic shopper, while Save-a-Lot and Aldi duke it out in the no-frills category.

The cost of shipping allegedly “cheaper” food long distances combined with falling U.S. wages means fruit from Argentina and Chile and seafood from overseas will become less common. The poor quality of Red Chinese products has scared off many shoppers, as they have found that it can pay to spend a little more and buy better quality items from trustworthy local farmers.

Everyone from environmentalists to food lovers has jumped on the buy-local movement, as it makes a lot of sense at several levels. Fresher, better quality meat and produce that is often raised with fewer or no chemicals is a better value for the consumer, even if the retail price is higher than what typically comes from corporate agribusiness.

Why ship apples from Washington and even New Zealand to states such as Michigan and Wisconsin that are loaded with orchards and locally grown fruit? Americans will have to re-learn how to eat more seasonally, but that shouldn’t be a major problem.

Speaking of transnational corporations, Monsanto’s genetically modified seeds and the “Frankenfoods” they push are proving to be a very hard sell. Look for such products to be used – unlabeled, if possible – as ingredients in ready-to-eat products rather than being sold on a stand-alone basis. Despite their sanctimonious blabbering, the government will surely side with their campaign contributors rather than consumers on this crucial issue.

Smaller package sizes have become more common, although the switch is being done on a stealth basis to fool shoppers. A typical one-pound (16 ounce) can of coffee from the 1970s now weighs in at 11 to 13 ounces, while half-gallon (64-ounce) cartons of ice cream have become 48 or 56 ounces. Likewise, the former six-ounce can of tuna has slimmed down to five ounces.

Such trickery hides inflation, but the process is going to become more pronounced and blatant in the future. Don’t be surprised if gallon jugs of milk and orange juice and “family size” packs of fresh meat disappear in the future. More expensive food combined with smaller incomes and a poorer customer base will naturally lead to less demand for economy-sized packages.

What can the average person do to protect himself? Develop food sources outside the major chains such as rural stores owned by Mennonites. Gardening and raising meat animals from quail to cattle is another important step towards a secure food supply. If this isn’t possible, set aside a cash reserve for food storage and have some funds on hand to stock up when bargains are available.

There are plenty of crucial issues as America slides into the great depression of the 21st century, but nothing is more essential than having something to eat. Make this the cornerstone of your preparedness efforts.